PLS EXPLAIN

How will Trump’s election impact Australia? We unpack

Last week, Donald Trump won the election against Democrat Kamala Harris. He will become the second President in US history to serve two non-consecutive terms.

From the outset of his campaign, Trump has proposed ultra conservative and protectionist policies. Realistically, they are similar to those introduced under his former administration. And while we can expect these to begin being implemented from early next year, there’s one key question we’re all thinking.

How will Trump’s presidency impact Australia?

Tariffs, Trade Wars and Inflation

Under the protectionist stance Trump has historically taken, tariffs are a big deal. His second term policies appears to be no different. Already, the President has gone so far to propose a broad 10-20% tariff on most imports coming into the US. For countries like China, this could be inflated to as high as 60%.

Trump’s rationale is to steer away from international economic specialisation, and towards a self-sufficient, domestic production economy. It’s also been posed as a source of revenue that would offset proposed tax cuts. However, for Australia, this could significantly impact trade revenue. Year on year, Australia has exported over AUD$4.8bn to America, who are a large market for our mining resources.

Historically, over 90% of Australian exports to the US have been tariff free. It’s all thanks to a 20-year old free trade agreement between the two countries. In Trump’s last administration, Australia narrowly avoided becoming the subject of new tariffs on locally made steel. And with suspicions that Trump will be less catering in this second administration, many are concerned a blanket tariff will be implemented this time round. This would significantly dampen our ability to remain competitive in the market. It would also result in immense losses in regards to Australia’s export revenue.

Of equal, if not greater concern, is the potential for Trump to re-incite a trade war with China, in the same way he did during his 2016 administration. And despite Australia’s effort to remain neutral with two of our largest trade partners, it’s kind of impossible. ABC News reports that former US ambassador, Arthur Sinodinos, has warned that Australia would have “little hope of avoiding getting caught in the crossfire”.

Thirdly, said tariffs are almost aways known to have an inflationary effect on an international scale. Even CEO of National Australian Bank, Andrew Irvine, has noted that Trump’s plan to cut regulation will make inflation harder to tame.

AUKUS

One of Australia’s currently largest standing military deals is the AUKUS, with the UK and US. The agreement, formalised in 2021, is central to Australia’s acquisition of sovereign, nuclear-powered submarines from 2030. The deal involves the US transferring Virginia class submarines over to Australia.

Foreign policy experts anticipate the deal to endure under the Trump administration. However, many have noted that this will have to be at the forefront of diplomatic relations in upcoming years. Some Labor and Greens party members have even called for Australia to rethink the deal. They have cited the danger of entering into said agreement with a President who is notoriously unpredictable.

US Conservative Soft Power Implications

Direct policies impacting international trade have obvious impacts on the Australian economy. However, the soft power of the US should also not be overlooked. Donald Trump is hyper conservative when it comes to his social values. One can expect some of these belief systems to rub off on Australians.

Most pertinently in the news currently is Trump’s policy stance on abortion. Just before the end of his presidential administration in 2020, Trump was a pivotal force in overturning Roe v Wade. The Supreme Court precedent had historically been essential in federally enshrining the right to access abortion. Since the overturning, 14 states have enacted near-total abortion bans. Trump has not indicated his legislative intention to impose a national abortion ban. Nevertheless, it’s safe to say that he stands conservatively on the side of the issue.

Naturally, this has flow on affects from a cultural perspective in Australia. Just three weeks ago, the South Australian Upper House narrowly shot down a bill to amend existing abortion laws. They proposed restricting the option for abortion after 28 weeks of pregnancy. Last week, it was discovered that Orange Hospital was illegally denying abortions for women who weren’t experiencing “early pregnancy complications”.

Since Trump’s victory last Wednesday, there has been a myriad of misogyny and vitriol directed towards women. “Your body. My choice.” has been a recurring comment on social media following Nick Fuentes coining the ‘slogan’, including in Australia. This is no coincidence. It would be naive to assume that the conservatism within the US government won’t have an impact on the social collective of Australia. Only time will tell to what extent this will actually occur.